Super Tuesday 2024: Elections in the U.S. Presidential Primaries

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On the night of this Tuesday, March 5th, thousands of Americans will carry out voting in a total of 16 states, in what is known as Super Tuesday, a significant day in the presidential primary calendar.

Voters will go to the polls across much of the continental United States, encompassing Alaska and California to Colorado, Minnesota, and North Carolina.

According to digital press media, 1,215 committed delegates are needed to win the Republican nomination at the party’s convention. More than 35% of the delegates who will gather next summer at the Republican convention in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) and the Democratic convention in Chicago (Illinois) to proceed to choose the White House candidate are at stake.

This primary electoral process began last January 15th in Iowa for Republicans, and February 3rd in South Carolina for Democrats, a process in early dates that has allowed a definition of those who are positioning as favorites and for those with less support to withdraw.

This was the case this year with some Republican candidacies like the withdrawal of Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, or Vivek Ramaswamy. The large percentage of delegates from both parties selected at an early stage of the primaries is paving the way for the future winner.

On the selection of Democratic and Republican delegates

As an explanatory note on what will be happening this Tuesday night in the United States, it is valid to clarify that Republicans will choose 865 of the 2,429 delegates that will be called to the Republican National Convention next July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), which represents 35.6 percent of the total.

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This figure of 865 delegates at stake this Super Tuesday represents the largest amount of Republican delegates in this cycle. Of these, 169 are from the state of California, 161 from Texas, and of this number in this state, 11 will be won at the state convention in May. 74 delegates are from North Carolina, 58 from Tennessee, 50 from Alabama, 48 from Virginia, and 43 from Oklahoma while there are 40 from Massachusetts, also 40 from Arkansas, and the same figure from Utah. On the other hand, they add up to 39 from Minnesota, 37 from Colorado, 29 from Alaska, 20 from Maine, and 17 from Vermont.

On the other hand, Democrats choose 1,439 of the 3,934 delegates who will proclaim their candidate at the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago (Illinois), representing 36.5 percent.

What about Biden, Trump, and Haley in these primaries?

In this contest, a rematch between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump is estimated eight months before the general elections in November.

For his part, Biden has no opponent within the Democratic ranks since he is the incumbent president, however, Trump enjoys an unusual advantage in the Republican primaries since only the former U.S. ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, remains.

Following this line, one of the questions that most arises in society is whether Joe Biden can win the primaries on Super Tuesday. According to political analysts on social media, this is not possible even if Biden wins all the delegates at stake, and so far only two have escaped him in the Michigan primaries.

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Thus, adding his current 206, he stays at 1,645, still somewhat distant (323) from the number that gives the Democratic nomination, which is 1,968. Therefore, it is assumed that the greatest probability is that Biden will obtain the necessary number of delegates to be considered the winner of the primaries this March 19th.

Regarding Donald Trump, analysts affirm that he also does not have possibilities of victory in these primaries since, regardless of dominating the Republican primaries without setbacks, he currently adds up to 244 delegates.

Even if he won absolutely all the delegates (an unlikely event), he would still not reach the number of 1,215 needed to be able to proclaim himself a candidate. On the other hand, Nikki Haley, the only rival facing Donald Trump in these primaries, has 43 delegates, and last Sunday won her first primaries in the District of Columbia, and this Super Tuesday it is expected that donors and voters who support her candidacy will show up, otherwise Trump will defeat her.

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Haymé Santoya Rodríguez

Licenciada en Historia del Arte por la Universidad de Oriente. Investigadora en Casa de la Nacionalidad Cubana. Se especializa en estudios sobre artes visuales y cine cubano. Ha realizado trabajos de curaduría de arte así como conferencias, presentaciones de libros, conversatorios y disertaciones sobre su especialización. Se ha vinculado al periodismo digital desde el 2018.